Who will win the 2020 presidential election?
Can the folks from Randy Lewis Racing REALLY accurately predict who will win the 2020 presidential election? Here’s how we see it. We’ve got a 50% chance! Remember, it’s easy to forget. This post is about polling, not politics.
Latest update: October 30, 2020
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I used to love betting on sporting events. I could take the most off-the-wall game that I had no interest in, something like the Jacksonville Jaguars playing the Tennessee Titans and place a wager. If I bet on the Jaguars I instantly became a huge Jaguar fan and vice versa. I don’t bet on games much anymore. I’m pretty sure you will not find a more apolitical individual than me. Nevertheless, I am intrigued by the outcome of the upcoming 2020 presidential election. That being the case I’m going to share some information with you that I get from a smartphone app called “PocketPolls”. Before I go any further I will accept the fact that Democrats essentially hate Republicans and Republicans essentially hate Democrats. I’m not trying to change that. Hate on brothers and sisters. I’m just acknowledging that as fact. Some folks might challenge the word “hate”. They might prefer personal distaste, a distinct repelling feeling or whatever. I think hate covers most situations. I know that each side spends most of their day criticizing and degrading the other party. Why? I guess just for the pure fun of it. In order to support one political party or the other that supporter has to denigrate any data that is supplied by the other side as being inaccurate, biased, distorted, and most likely all of those things. That’s usually until that data turns around and begins to support their point of view. It kinda goes like this, “The polls are bogus because they aren’t supporting my guy. I don’t believe ’em. Now the polls are tightening in favor of my guy. Yep. I believe in the polls”. Luckily, I guess, there are about 10-20% of the population who fall in between these two groups…..or outside these two groups. Below I will share the results from a variety of polling organizations. I don’t support or endorse any of these groups. I couldn’t tell you if Charlie Manson’s children are behind one poll or the other. I am simply sharing the information verbatim. The polls I am sharing were taken as early as August 3, 2020, 90 days before the election date. As we go along I will continue to update the various polls. That might be a hassle but it’s only for two more months. You can come to this page as often as you want to see what the latest results are. I’m sure some will look at the polling sources and yell at their computer screen, “I wouldn’t believe those #$^#&$ for a New York minute!” While at the very same time another reader is looking at the same poll results and nodding their head yes as if to say, “That sounds reasonable to me”. I actually happen to believe in polls in general. I figure if I asked a group of my friends how likely they were to come to my birthday party most of them would be willing to answer that question. If I asked all likely attendees if they preferred chocolate cake or vanilla cake (I would pick vanilla and probably wouldn’t even ask my quests this question) I’m pretty sure they would tell me their choice. Are people too shy, once they are asked a question to tell a stranger who they would vote for as their presidential choice? I don’t think so. I base this on just returning from a five-day, five-state tour of the midwest. It seemed as if every other lawn had a political sign touting their favorite. Yes, I believe in the presidential polls…in general…regardless of which candidate they might be in favor at the time the poll was taken. I would caution against one thing. I am only the messenger. Don’t try to kill the messenger. If your guy is ahead in a particular poll it’s not all that worthwhile to crow about it. If your guy is behind in a particular poll it’s not all that worthwhile to denigrate the polls. I know that lots of people are fond of saying the polls got it wrong last time and they normally get it wrong. I don’t really support that kind of thinking. If I were running a polling organization I would like to make my results as accurate as possible so that somebody might hire me based upon my expert polling capabilities the next time around. Below you will see how Randy Lewis Racing is projecting the outcome of the race. Please….save your “I told you so messages”. This is based upon the most current polls. They may change a little or a lot and not at all in the coming days and weeks. If the polls change from one candidate to another then I will change my prediction. I am just projecting the results of all available national and state polls that appear in my PocketPolls app. 1. I will first list the projected electoral votes for the 2020 election by candidate. This is based upon the 2016 election results and current polling. From here you will see exactly who Randy Lewis Racing expects to win the election….now. However, if the polls change RLR can and will change their prediction. 2. The national polls are next. I’ll take an average of all national polls always deleting any “old” poll by one pollster who has published a more recent poll. No double counting. I’ll keep the numbers from all polls since August 3, 2020 (90 days before the election) up to the most current so you can see the results from each pollster. That way you can get an apples to apples comparison (changes in the poll…from the same pollster, etc.). Trust me, only the most recent results from each pollster are included in the results. You can trust ME, right? I’m the most apolitical person you know. 3. This section includes the state polls. Same rationale as the national polls. 4. Next is a table that shows the popular vote percentages for each candidate from the 2016 election. Some states are already pretty well decided. About ten others are still in the undecided category. I’m using the current polls to allocate those electoral votes to whichever candidate has the current lead in that state in the most current polls. If one political party won a state by more than 5% in 2016 I’m giving them credit for that state to carry in the 2020 election. When the 2016 results were somewhat close and/or the polls are somewhat close now I’m throwing that state in the undecided category. I think it might be kind of fun to look at this ongoingly and just see how close these prognosticators come to do the actual results. I do know that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the 2016 election by about 3 million votes. I did some research and found 38 different polls that were projecting the results the week before the 2016 election. On average Clinton was expected to win by 2.7%. I don’t know if those projections were for the popular vote or simply to win the election outright. Probably to win the election. A variance of 2.7% doesn’t seem like much to me, certainly not a landslide. On the other hand, President Trump won three different large states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) by a total of 77,000 votes. It’s pretty amazing that in a country with 350 million people (about 136 million people voted) the fact that if about 40,000 people have voted for the other candidate the electoral college results would have been different. Did the 2016 pollsters really get it wrong? It’s true they didn’t pick the winner. But in reality, the polls didn’t seem to be off by very much to me….if 40,000 people vote the other way the polls were right…..but 40,000 people voted for who they voted for….so the national polls were wrong. Again, I am not providing this to support either candidate. I told you I was the most apolitical individual that you know and I am. You can leave a message on this post. However, if I deem it to be political, and my stuff is never about politics, I will simply delete it. Feel free to rant and rave in personal messages to me. I can take it. I wish good luck and good health to each of the 2020 presidential political candidates. The future is impossible to predict…but polls might help with that. Heaven forbid if one candidate or the other tests positive for COVID-19 before the election. I wouldn’t want to be the campaign manager who gets to share that information (or not!) with the public. I do know this. It’s my saying of the year. “It doesn’t matter what people read, see or hear…it’s what they think and want to believe”. votes Projected winner Projected Electoral 2020 Electoral votes Trump Biden Polls 188 350 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Arizona 11 11 +2.7% B Arkansas 6 6 California 55 55 Colorado 9 9 Connecticut 7 7 Delaware 3 3 District of Columbia 3 3 Florida 29 29 +2.3% B Georgia 16 16 +2.1% B Hawaii 4 4 Idaho 4 4 Illinois 20 20 Indiana 11 11 Iowa 6 6 +0.2% T Kansas 6 6 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 8 8 Maine* 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Massachusetts 11 11 Michigan 16 16 +8.1 B Minnesota 10 10 +8.2 B Mississippi 6 6 Missouri 10 10 Montana 3 3 Nebraska* 5 5 Nevada 6 6 +5.6 B New Hampshire 4 4 New Jersey 14 14 New Mexico 5 5 New York 29 29 North Carolina 15 15 +2.2 B North Dakota 3 3 Ohio 18 18 1.7 T Oklahoma 7 7 Oregon 7 7 Pennsylvania 20 20 +5.8 B Rhode Island 4 4 South Carolina 9 9 South Dakota 3 3 Tennessee 11 11 Texas 38 38 1.0 T Utah 6 6 Vermont 3 3 Virginia 13 13 Washington 12 12 West Virginia 5 5 Wisconsin 10 10 +8.0 B Wyoming 3 3 * Maine/Nebraska allow their votes to be split by congressional district Assumes the party that won a state in 2016 wins it again unless there is a big 2020 poll change NATIONAL POLL RESULTS Trump Biden Variance 3 Week National Average 1-Sep 41.7% 49.8% 8.1% 3 Week National Average 9-Sep 42.0% 49.6% 7.6% 3 Week National Average 14-Sep 42.6% 49.7% 7.1% 3 Week National Average 17-Sep 42.1% 50.3% 8.2% 3 Week National Average 25-Sep 42.0% 50.3% 8.3% 3 Week National Average 28-Sep 41.7% 50.3% 8.6% 3 Week National Average 4-Oct 42.1% 50.2% 8.1% 3 Week National Average 8-Oct 41.8% 50.6% 8.8% 3 Week National Average 12-Oct 41.8% 50.8% 9.0% 3 Week National Average 14-Oct 41.6% 51.2% 9.6% 3 Week National Average 19-Oct 41.3% 51.6% 10.3% 3 Week National Average 22-Oct 41.6% 51.7% 10.1% 3 Week National Average 27-Oct 41.7% 51.6% 9.9% 3 Week National Average 29-Oct 42.4% 51.6% 9.2% ABC News/Washington Post 15-Aug 44.0% 54.0% ABC News/Washington Post 24-Sep 43.0% 53.0% ABC News/Washington Post 9-Oct 43.0% 54.0% 43.0% 54.0% AP/NORC 14-Sep 40.0% 44.0% AP/NORC 12-Oct 36.0% 51.0% 36.0% 51.0% Atlas International 30-Aug 46.3% 49.4% Atlas International 28-Oct 50.9% 46.2% 50.9% 46.2% CCES/YouGov 27-Oct 43.0% 51.0% 43.0% 51.0% Change Research 23-Aug 43.0% 51.0% Change Research 6-Sep 43.0% 49.0% Change Research 20-Sep 42.0% 51.0% Change Research 30-Sep 41.0% 54.0% Change Research 4-Oct 42.0% 52.0% Change Research 18-Oct 42.0% 52.0% Change Research 24-Oct 43.0% 51.0% 43.0% 51.0% Climate/Nexus 9-Sep 41.0% 52.0% 41.0% 52.0% Colby College 23-Sep 43.0% 46.0% Colby College 25-Oct 42.0% 46.0% 42.0% 46.0% Cometrends 26-Oct 44.0% 56.0% 44.0% 56.0% CNBC 24-Oct 40.0% 51.0% 40.0% 51.0% CNN/SSRS 15-Aug 46.0% 50.0% CNN/SSRS 1-Sep 43.0% 51.0% CNN/SSRS 4-Oct 41.0% 56.0% CNN/SSRS 26-Oct 42.0% 54.0% 42.0% 54.0% Critical Insights 9-Aug 38.0% 39.0% Critical Insights 4-Oct 49.0% 41.0% 49.0% 41.0% Data for Progress 14-Aug 41.0% 50.0% Data for Progress 1-Sep 42.8% 53.0% Data for Progress 15-Sep 42.2% 52.8% Data for Progress 1-Oct 41.0% 51.0% Data for Progress 6-Oct 40.8% 56.2% Data for Progress 20-Oct 43.7% 53.9% 43.7% 53.9% Ecelon Insights 18-Aug 38.0% 51.0% Ecelon Insights 25-Sep 41.0% 50.0% Ecelon Insights 20-Oct 44.0% 50.0% 44.0% 50.0% Ecos Research 16-Aug 41.5% 42.9% 41.5% 42.9% Edison Research 8-Oct 34.8% 48.1% 34.8% 48.1% Emerson College 31-Aug 48.5% 51.5% Emerson College 25-Sep 46.6% 49.6% 46.6% 49.6% Emerson College 26-Oct 46.7% 50.9% 46.7% 50.9% Fabrizio Ward/Hart 5-Sep 35.0% 58.0% 45.0% 49.0% FM3 Research 4-Oct 42.0% 53.0% 45.0% 49.0% Fox News 12-Aug 42.0% 49.0% Fox News 10-Sep 46.0% 51.0% Fox News 6-Oct 43.0% 52.0% 43.0% 52.0% GBAO 19-Oct 40.0% 53.0% 40.0% 53.0% Georgetown University 6-Aug 40.0% 53.3% 40.0% 53.3% Global Marketing Research 4-Oct 37.0% 51.0% Global Marketing Research 27-Oct 38.0% 52.5% 38.0% 52.5% Global Strategy 24-Aug 41.0% 54.0% Global Strategy 31-Aug 43.0% 52.0% Global Strategy 14-Sep 42.0% 53.0% Global Strategy 21-Sep 42.0% 53.0% Global Strategy 28-Sep 43.0% 53.0% Global Strategy 5-Oct 44.0% 52.0% Global Strategy 12-Oct 43.0% 53.0% Global Strategy 19-Oct 43.0% 53.0% 43.0% 53.0% HarrisX 28-Aug 38.0% 47.0% HarrisX 31-Aug 40.0% 46.0% HarrisX 2-Sep 47.0% 53.0% HarrisX 8-Sep 39.0% 47.0% HarrisX 14-Sep 39.0% 45.0% HarrisX 21-Sep 40.0% 45.0% HarrisX 24-Sep 45.0% 47.0% HarrisX 1-Oct 40.0% 47.0% HarrisX 6-Oct 40.0% 45.0% HarrisX 13-Oct 40.0% 47.0% HarrisX 15-Oct 42.0% 46.0% HarrisX 28-Oct 47.0% 53.0% 47.0% 53.0% Hart Research 7-Sep 43.0% 51.0% 43.0% 51.0% Hofstra University 22-Sep 41.9% 53.2% Hofstra University 26-Oct 42.5% 53.9% 42.5% 53.9% IBD/TIPP 1-Sep 41.0% 49.0% IBD/TIPP 19-Sep 43.9% 49.5% IBD/TIPP 1-Oct 45.9% 48.6% IBD/TIPP 12-Oct 42.4% 51.4% IBD/TIPP 17-Oct 44.1% 49.8% IBD/TIPP 21-Oct 45.6% 49.8% IBD/TIPP 25-Oct 44.7% 51.5% IBD/TIPP 28-Oct 44.8% 50.3% 44.8% 50.3% Inovative Research 6-Oct 42.0% 47.0% 42.0% 47.0% Ipsos 25-Aug 37.0% 44.0% Ipsos 1-Sep 38.0% 43.0% Ipsos 8-Sep 40.0% 48.0% Ipsos 15-Sep 41.0% 50.0% Ipsos 17-Sep 42.0% 51.0% Ipsos 24-Sep 41.0% 50.0% Ipsos 1-Oct 41.0% 50.0% Ipsos 3-Oct 40.0% 48.0% Ipsos 6-Oct 40.0% 52.0% Ipsos 8-Oct 41.0% 53.0% Ipsos 13-Oct 37.0% 43.0% Ipsos 15-Oct 38.0% 48.0% Ipsos 20-Oct 42.0% 51.0% Ipsos 22-Oct 43.0% 51.0% Ipsos 27-Oct 42.0% 52.0% 42.0% 52.0% J.L. Partners 23-Sep 41.0% 51.0% J.L. Partners 13-Oct 42.0% 52.0% J.L. Partners 28-Oct 41.0% 55.0% 41.0% 55.0% John Zogby 29-Aug 42.0% 45.0% John Zogby 2-Oct 44.9% 47.3% 44.9% 47.3% Kaiser Family Foundation 3-Sep 43.0% 48.0% Kaiser Family Foundation 12-Oct 38.0% 49.0% 38.0% 49.0% Leger 23-Aug 40.0% 49.0% Leger 30-Aug 42.0% 49.0% Leger 6-Sep 41.0% 47.0% Leger 13-Sep 41.0% 47.0% Leger 20-Sep 41.0% 48.0% Leger 27-Sep 40.0% 47.0% Leger 4-Oct 40.0% 49.0% Leger 11-Oct 39.0% 50.0% Leger 18-Oct 41.0% 50.0% Leger 25-Oct 41.0% 49.0% 41.0% 49.0% LOC Wick 28-Aug 49.3% 47.5% 49.3% 47.5% Long Island University 27-Oct 36.0% 47.0% 36.0% 47.0% Marist College 11-Aug 42.0% 53.0% Marist College 16-Sep 42.0% 49.0% Marist College 13-Oct 42.0% 54.0% 42.0% 54.0% Marquette Law School 15-Sep 40.0% 50.0% 40.0% 50.0% Monmouth University 10-Aug 41.0% 51.0% Monmouth University 8-Sep 44.0% 51.0% Monmouth University 27-Sep 45.0% 50.0% 45.0% 50.0% Morning Consult 23-Aug 42.0% 52.0% Morning Consult 29-Aug 43.0% 51.0% Morning Consult 5-Sep 44.0% 50.0% Morning Consult 13-Sep 43.0% 51.0% Morning Consult 22-Sep 41.0% 48.0% Morning Consult 27-Sep 44.0% 51.0% Morning Consult 2-Oct 43.0% 51.0% Morning Consult 7-Oct 43.0% 52.0% Morning Consult 9-Oct 43.0% 51.0% Morning Consult 14-Oct 43.0% 52.0% Morning Consult 20-Oct 43.0% 52.0% Morning Consult 25-Oct 43.0% 52.0% 43.0% 52.0% NBC News/Wall Street Journal 12-Aug 41.0% 50.0% NBC News/Wall Street Journal 16-Sep 43.0% 51.0% NBC News/Wall Street Journal 1-Oct 39.0% 53.0% NBC News/Wall Street Journal 12-Oct 42.0% 53.0% 42.0% 53.0% Opinium 26-Aug 39.1% 53.6% Opinium 10-Sep 42.2% 51.2% Opinium 12-Oct 40.0% 57.0% Opinium 29-Oct 41.0% 53.0% 41.0% 53.0% Pan Atlantic Research 6-Oct 36.5% 54.0% 36.5% 54.0% Pew Research Center 10/ 42.0% 52.0% 42.0% 52.0% Politico/Harvard 6-Sep 42.0% 52.0% 42.0% 52.0% Public Religion Research 12-Oct 38.0% 56.0% 38.0% 56.0% Qriously 31-Aug 41.0% 46.0% Qriously 7-Sep 41.0% 47.0% Qriously 13-Sep 42.0% 46.0% Qriously 20-Sep 38.6% 46.4% Qriously 27-Sep 40.0% 50.0% Qriously 4-Oct 38.0% 51.0% Qriously 12-Oct 38.0% 52.0% Qriously 19-Oct 39.0% 51.0% Qriously 26-Oct 39.0% 49.0% 39.0% 49.0% Quinnipiac University 31-Aug 42.0% 52.0% Quinnipiac University 14-Sep 44.0% 53.0% Quinnipiac University 21-Sep 42.0% 52.0% Quinnipiac University 19-Oct 41.0% 51.0% 41.0% 51.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 25-Aug 45.0% 46.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 1-Sep 45.0% 49.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 8-Sep 45.9% 47.6% Rasmussen/Pulse 15-Sep 46.6% 46.1% Rasmussen/Pulse 22-Sep 47.0% 48.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 29-Sep 43.0% 51.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 6-Oct 40.0% 52.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 13-Oct 45.0% 50.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 20-Oct 46.0% 49.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 25-Oct 48.0% 47.0% Rasmussen/Pulse 28-Oct 47.0% 48.0% 47.0% 48.0% Redfield & Wilton 26-Aug 38.8% 48.9% Redfield & Wilton 1-Sep 40.8% 49.1% Redfield & Wilton 8-Sep 40.3% 49.3% Redfield & Wilton 17-Sep 41.5% 48.6% Redfield & Wilton 23-Sep 41.0% 50.0% Redfield & Wilton 27-Sep 40.0% 50.0% Redfield & Wilton 4-Oct 42.0% 50.0% Redfield & Wilton 10-Oct 41.0% 49.0% Redfield & Wilton 18-Oct 40.0% 51.0% Redfield & Wilton 26-Oct 37.0% 47.0% 37.0% 47.0% Research Co. 4-Aug 38.0% 48.0% Research Co. 6-Sep 41.0% 49.0% Research Co. 18-Oct 42.0% 50.0% 42.0% 50.0% Rethink Priorities 20-Oct 41.5% 51.3% 41.5% 51.3% RMG Research 29-Aug 44.0% 48.0% RMG Research 12-Sep 43.0% 48.0% RMG Research 19-Sep 44.0% 50.0% RMG Research 26-Sep 45.0% 51.0% RMG Research 3-Oct 43.0% 51.0% RMG Research 10-Oct 43.0% 51.0% RMG Research 17-Oct 43.0% 51.0% RMG Research 24-Oct 44.0% 51.0% 44.0% 51.0% Saint Leo University 2-Oct 38.3% 52.1% 38.3% 52.1% Siena College/NY Times 16-Sep 45.0% 47.0% Siena College/NY Times 24-Sep 41.0% 49.0% Siena College/NY Times 27-Sep 41.0% 48.0% Siena College/NY Times 18-Oct 41.0% 50.0% 41.0% 50.0% Slezer & Co. 30-Aug 41.0% 49.0% 41.0% 49.0% Spry Strategies 23-Oct 46.0% 47.9% 46.0% 47.9% Suffolk University 31-Aug 41.6% 46.9% Suffolk University 20-Sep 45.5% 46.8% Suffolk University 27-Oct 44.3% 51.8% 44.3% 51.8% SurveyMonkey 30-Sep 46.0% 52.0% SurveyMonkey 11-Oct 46.5% 51.5% SurveyMonkey 17-Oct 45.0% 53.0% SurveyMonkey 20-Oct 46.0% 52.0% SurveyMonkey 25-Oct 46.0% 52.0% 46.0% 52.0% SurveyUSA 4-Oct 43.0% 53.0% SurveyUSA 19-Oct 43.0% 53.0% 43.0% 53.0% SurveyUSA 27-Oct 48.6% 51.4% 48.6% 51.4% Swayable 26-Oct 45.7% 51.4% 45.7% 51.4% Targoz Market Research 6-Sep 46.3% 47.5% 46.3% 47.5% Tufts 25-Oct 45.0% 52.0% 45.0% 52.0% University of Maryland 23-Aug 38.9% 47.5% 38.9% 47.5% University of Massachusetts Lowell 12-Oct 43.0% 53.0% 43.0% 53.0% USC Dornsife 30-Aug 40.2% 53.6% USC Dornsife 31-Aug 41.6% 51.9% USC Dornsife 4-Sep 41.1% 52.1% USC Dornsife 12-Sep 40.5% 54.3% USC Dornsife 15-Sep 43.4% 50.4% USC Dornsife 19-Sep 42.2% 51.6% USC Dornsife 23-Sep 42.0% 51.9% USC Dornsife 26-Sep 42.5% 51.4% USC Dornsife 1-Oct 43.3% 51.3% USC Dornsife 3-Oct 42.7% 52.2% USC Dornsife 6-Oct 42.4% 52.6% USC Dornsife 10-Oct 41.6% 53.4% USC Dornsife 12-Oct 41.3% 54.0% USC Dornsife 17-Oct 41.7% 53.5% USC Dornsife 21-Oct 42.1% 53.5% USC Dornsife 25-Oct 42.3% 53.6% USC Dornsife 28-Oct 42.4% 53.5% 42.4% 53.5% Whitman Insight 13-Oct 42.0% 54.0% 42.0% 54.0% Winston Group 26-Oct 43.0% 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% YouGov 28-Aug 41.0% 47.0% YouGov 1-Sep 40.0% 49.0% YouGov 11-Sep 39.0% 49.0% YouGov 15-Sep 41.0% 50.0% YouGov 17-Sep 41.0% 47.0% YouGov 23-Sep 44.0% 49.0% YouGov 30-Sep 42.0% 50.0% YouGov 5-Oct 43.0% 51.0% YouGov 6-Oct 42.0% 51.0% YouGov 11-Oct 43.0% 51.0% YouGov 13-Oct 42.0% 52.0% YouGov 20-Oct 43.0% 52.0% YouGov 25-Oct 42.0% 54.0% YouGov 27-Oct 43.5% 52.6% 43.5% 52.6% Average of current polls Average 42.5% 50.7%