Why was I picked to receive the presidential election results a day early? I don’t know. Why were Mary and Joseph selected by God to be the parents of baby Jesus? Too soon? I don’t have the answers to these questions.
I haven’t had anyone unsubscribe from my newsletter in a long time. Maybe that will change today! I will remind you that this message is about POLLING and not POLITICS. I don’t do political messages in my newsletter/blog.
I believe I am the most apolitical guy you know. I have the hardest time remembering if a RED state is Republican or Democrat. I have finally resorted to “Red = R = Republican”. Each time I hear something about a red state I have to go through this mental equation. If the topic is about a BLUE state I do the equation in reverse. If that doesn’t prove I’m the most apolitical individual you know I don’t know what does!
For the past three months I have been recording the poll results for the presidential election state by state and on a national basis. That data follows. I have no idea why they poll on a national basis since we have an electoral college.
I know what some of you might be saying. “The polls are always wrong”. Really? Does someone say that because their guy is behind in one poll or another?
I would ask this question of those folks who don’t believe in polls. Trump leads in Wyoming 63% to 17%. Don’t believe that poll? Biden leads in California 61% to 32%. Don’t believe that poll? I’ll bet on Wyoming for Trump and California for Biden and give anyone who’s interested 10 to 1 odds. I’m taking Biden in Washington, D.C. (he leads 87% to 10%) and giving 1,000 to one odds!
I used to go to the racetrack and bet on the ponies. I loved reading the Racing Form. There was so much data to analyze. Reading the Racing Form and placing my wagers was a lot like reading the presidential polls and trying to figure out who might win.
By the way, I have been using the Pocket Polls app to get the individual state by state and national polling results from nearly 100 polling organizations. Pocket Polls is saying that Biden has a 90% chance of winning and Trump has a 10% chance of winning. How often does a 10% chance happen? O.K., I’m waiting. The answer is 10% of the time. Ten percent chances happen all the time.
Is this presidential election “different this time”? I know the four most dangerous words in investing are “This time it’s different”.
There are a few things that could influence this election that haven’t been with us in the past. How about these items.
COVID-19
More people voting earlier than ever
More people voting in total since 1908
More people voting by mail than ever
More younger people than ever voting
Feel free to add in your own conspiracy theory
If the polls are accurate, and some states are within the margin of error, Biden will win (350-188). If Trump wins all of the “close” states including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas Biden will win (279-259). For Trump to win he must get the above seven battleground states and Pennsylvania. If Trump doesn’t win many or any of the battleground states? Is landslide one or two words?
A friend sent me an interesting web link. Here they rate all of the various political polls (there are a lot of them!) and give them a letter grade of A-F. Check it out.
I know some of you are still going to want to watch the election results Tuesday night just to check me. I’ve got no problem with that. I’ll do a follow-up message to compare my predictions to the actual results. However, that comparison can’t come until the election results are certified.
Summary
One of the reasons I absolutely hate politics is that most people I know are so politically partisan. They seem to believe that if their guy doesn’t win the world will end. I know that won’t happen. It is kind of humorous (to me) that many of my good and rational friends feel so polar opposite of each other. I commonly try to remind them that no matter how strongly they feel about their guy about 50% of the people feel just as strongly about the other guy.
I love challenging my friends and pointing out that their guy screwed up in one area or another. This is almost always met with a common response, “Ya, but the other guy is far worse”. If your child came home from school and told you he beat up his teacher would your response be, “But Johnny down the street KILLED his teacher”?
It seems like it used to be like this. If I said to someone that I was not for their “other guy” that was good enough. Now if I tell someone I’m not for “their guy” that’s terrible. Most everyone seems to take the “If you’re not with us you’re against us” approach.
I saw an interesting sign about the presidential election that I liked. It read:
You know what I’m going to do the day after the election day if my candidate loses?
Go to work.
Be happy
Live my life
Love others (at least try not to dislike them as much)
If he wins?
Same.
Unfortunately, I think about 0.1% of the American population would sign off on the above. Oh well. There’s nothing I can do about that so I’m going to practice exactly what is printed above.
Randy Lewis
San Clemente, California