The Work, Travel and Everyday Life Newsletter
from Randy Lewis
June 1, 2020
I see social unrest coming our way.
Nearly three months ago….back on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, I prepared, and on Friday, March 6, 2020, I sent a message to a group of more than 1,000 people. Somewhat unbelievably that message has since been removed from that conference.
Yes, that message was sent nearly THREE MONTHS ago. Yes, that message talked about COVID-19 being the match that sparked civil unrest. However, the message was just as much about income equality. It was a message about what people will do when they have nothing…and they have nothing to lose.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t for a second support or condone looting and stealing. I also don’t support guys standing out in front of their businesses with a gun to protect their property. Wait until one of those guys takes out about ten looters with an AK-15. Then we will REALLY see social unrest. No, the famous Marie-Antoinette quote, “If they have no bread let them eat cake” doesn’t work very well in real life either.
It’s important to understand that not everyone has the same value system. Most people think THEIR value system is the best one to have! It’s easy to say, “Why don’t people just behave the way I do”. It’s pretty important to understand that lots of people have lots of different ways to think about stuff. That’s why Michigan hates Ohio in football and the Yankees don’t much like the Dodgers and very few of us is clamoring to live in North Korea. Anyway, I thought you would like to see my take on social unrest written almost three months ago.
My message on March 4 was about the economic impact coming our way from COVID-19. I was not minimizing nor I am minimizing today the health consequences of this pandemic. However, this message and my note focused on the economic impacts and outcomes that may come from COVID-19.
On March 4 I was concerned about the economic impact of this problem. I feared a panic where the consumer would stop spending. When that happened demand for all kinds of services would nearly stop just as they did for the 2008/2009 financial crisis and 9/11.
I’m thinking that just about everyone reading this, nearly three months later (June 1, 2020), truly believed they had the same economic forecast in mind as I did on March 4. Maybe so. I do know this. Everyone who comes back from Vegas tells me they won, “just a little”.
The United States had recorded just two deaths from COVID-19 on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, when I prepared my note for the pngeezers group. Lots of people were saying COVID-19 probably wouldn’t be a big deal.
One month later – April 4, 2020 – 10,304 deaths
Two months later – May 4, 2020 – 69,921 deaths
Nearly three months later – May 31, 2020 – 106,195 deaths
I am not making any predictions on where this will go from here health-wise. I hope it stops very soon. However, I am going to make a prediction, which I hope doesn’t come true. I’ve listened to a lot of TV programs, podcasts, not so much radio and read new stories from several different major newspapers in the U.S.
Maybe there have been….but I have not heard or read a single comment about social unrest as a result of COVID-19. What do I mean by “social unrest”? I see that as riots over food shortages and the inability for people to afford food and other basic services.
Most of the folks in this conference are doing pretty well financially when compared to the remainder of the United States population. Our idea of, “social unrest” is calling up an airline or a cruise company or a travel agent and raising our voice if needed in order to get a cash refund.
That’s our form of, “social unrest”! But what about people who have no money in any kind of savings or investment account? What about those people who lost their jobs or will lose their jobs in the near term? What about those people who won’t be getting any government assistance with the most recent stimulus package? What about those people who fall into all THREE of these categories?
At that point, they may have no options. When was the last time you had absolutely no options? The ultimate lack of options is when people die.
When healthy people have no options they will do just about anything to keep on living. We see that when a ship is sinking or when something like the World Trade Center is on fire and the best option seems like jumping out of a window from fifty floors up. When people have no options they panic. When people “think” they have no options they panic.
It’s easy to say that people with no means should have stayed in school and prepared themselves better for the job market and the rainy day. It’s easy to say they should not have even gone to school and accrued so much student debt in a system that would send them into jobs that would likely never get them out of that student debt. It’s easy to say that those people shouldn’t have wasted their money on all of the things they wasted their money on.
The bottom bottom line is this. When people have no money, no prospects for money and no food they’re not going to starve to death. They are going to take action. They’re going to take THINGS. They’re going to take things that don’t belong to them. Maybe they’ll come to some of our homes and take our stuff. Maybe they’ll just walk into the grocery store and take stuff there.
It doesn’t take very many people to disrupt the system. We don’t need 60% or 40% or 20% of the population to fall into the category with absolutely nothing and no hope. If only 1% or 2% of the people find themselves in this state of economic trouble they’ll be able to cause a lot of problems.
All of what we’re talking about here really depends on how quickly we get COVID-19 under control. It depends on how quickly we find a vaccine or some other form of remedy to stop the calamity.
Even when we get that vaccine the economy is not going to jump back to where it was over the weekend. It’s going to take people a long time to push the button labeled, “buy a cruise”. It’s going to take people a long time to begin spending money on the things they used to spend money on at the same rate.
You might be interested in knowing I am not a conspiracy theorist. I don’t know of a single conspiracy theory that I actually believe in. I’ve been known to roll my eyes, almost every time when somebody hits me with their own belief on any conspiracy theory. However, it is fun listening to my golfing buddy Brian G. who could talk to you for hours, maybe days, on his view of the JFK conspiracy. I love Brian.
Anyway, I’m just sharing my thoughts on what I see coming our way. I really hope social unrest doesn’t come. Actually, what I think and feel about the situation doesn’t really matter in the big picture. It’s what happens that matters. If we keep going in the direction we’re going economically we’re in for even more major surprises.
One final note. This is NOT a political message. This IS an economic message. When people have nothing some of those people will take stuff that doesn’t belong to them. Although I really hope it doesn’t turn out this way I see the potential as being a big problem. I see social unrest coming our way.
By the way, lots of folks are sending me their thoughts on what I am sharing in this newsletter. If you agree or you don’t agree or you have a different idea please continue to let me know what you’re thinking. When I can I’ll pass those ideas along to the broader group. Others tell me they are passing the content of these notes onto family and friends. Still, others are sending in email contact info so more people can get what I’m sending directly.
Randy Lewis
San Clemente, California