And the readers respond!!
First thank you to everyone who shared their feedback on their Covid experiences and predictions on what the pandemic will look like on July 4.
A number of “new” people shared. As you read the responses you will soon discover folks have had a lot of common experiences AND people see the future with or without the vaccine much differently. As promised I have done my level best to maintain anonymity of responders other that sharing their state location when available.
I will share my responses followed by everyone else’s. Again, thanks. I think what everyone shared is both valuable, educational and entertaining. I hope you feel the same way.
Randy’s Covid effects today.
I don’t think of myself as a risk-taker. However, after glancing at the feedback I got from most of you I now feel like Evil Knievel was a church boy compared to my behavior during the past year. I feel like I’m that neighbor who runs down your street on New Year’s Eve in his underwear with his hair on fire. All the while I never really thought I was taking all that much risk!
Up to this point a typical day during the past year for me, when I’m home, goes like this. I’ll head to the beach and exercise for one hour. More often than not I will drive to McDonald’s for lunch (605 calories each time), use the drive-thru and then sit in my car in the parking lot and read the news from my phone. I did this before they called it social distancing.
About every other night I’ll take my wife to dinner at a restaurant. I don’t like to have her spend a lot of time preparing, eating and cleaning up just for the two of us. We’ll either use the drive-through or pick up food. Then we go to one of the highest spots in town overlooking the Pacific Ocean, sit in the car, eat our food and catch up on our day. We also eat outdoors at a restaurant for taco Tuesday, wait for it, each Tuesday, with our daughter, son-in-law and two grandchildren.
I’ve done a good bit of traveling during the pandemic
From early June through mid-November I flew somewhere to satisfy my auto racing interests for 24 consecutive weekends. Most auto racing, but not all, is done outdoors. No one wears a mask at an auto race be it outdoors or indoors. No one. At the last race I attended several people came up to shake hands. During Covid I would rather not shake anyone’s hand but when an old friend or a new friend extends their hand it’s hard to reject that gesture.
I estimate that during this time I flew on 60 airplanes or more. From June 4 through November 15 I stayed overnight in hotels for 83 nights. Hotels and airlines are taking the opportunity during Covid to cut out services. No real food or drinks are being served on airplanes. They give you a plastic bag with a bottle of water and a small snack or two. Almost all hotels have stopped serving their hot breakfasts.
I have probably eaten indoors at restaurants 5-10 times during the past year. In California, I have gone out of my way to make sure my group eats outdoors. We’ve had a few dinners, including my birthday lunch with eight family members where the temperatures got down to about 50° which is a little nippy for us Californians.
Risky behavior?
As I look back on things compared to others I was practicing risky behavior. From my point of view I was wearing a mask when asked but not when I exercised outdoors. I was practicing social distancing and washing my hands.
Luckily, no close family members tested positive for Covid. Several friends and more distant family members did catch Covid with no serious problems. I received my first vaccine jab (Moderna) on January 22, at Disneyland no less! Carol got hers (Pfizer) two days later and has since received her second shot. I’ll get my second vaccine in a couple of days.
As I look back on the year, with the exception of not being in the stands for live sports (baseball, football and basketball) I would say life has been very close to normal. I don’t have a problem wearing a mask. I don’t see it as any more of an infringement on my personal rights than when I see a sign that says, “No shirt, no shoes, no service”. I’m actually glad that I am prohibited from taking off my shirt when I enter a convenience store for the mental well-being of others!
Randy’s Covid predictions by July 4.
Help is on the way!
By July 4, 2021 I think we are going to be in a MUCH better place with Covid. That’s nearly five months from now. I feel that virtually everyone in the United States who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by the Fourth of July.
Follow the math.
Here’s my math on that prediction. The U.S. has a population of about 330 million people. When you factor out kids under the age of 18 who will not be getting a vaccine at that point and about 30% of the population who don’t want to get a vaccine that leaves about 180 million people to vaccinate.
Some recent research said that 13% of the people would rather die than get a vaccine. Another 7% of the people would only get a vaccine if “required”. Finally about 30% would only be willing to get a vaccine “after waiting awhile”. I think it’s a safe estimate to say that 30% of the adult population won’t get a vaccine by July 4 by choice.
As this is written we are vaccinating about a 1.7 million people each day on average. That number is increasing at a fairly rapid rate. Just this week we had our first single day of 2MM vaccines. It seems to me that with more super-sized vaccination locations opening up and more pharmacies giving vaccines we could easily average 2 million shots a day and maybe more. Of course this assumes that we don’t run out of vaccine.
Let’s just say for the purpose of projecting that one-third (60MM people) of the active vaccine population (that’s 180MM people) gets one of the three vaccines between now and July 4. That means that 120 million people get two shots each (Moderna and Pfizer) and 60 million people get the J&J single shot. That’s 300 million shots in total.
Mark it down. June 18, 2021.
As of February 15 we’ve already executed about 54.6 million vaccine shots. That leaves 245.4 million shots (300MM less 54.6MM) still to be given. If we are putting 2MM shots in arms each day the math says 245.4MM divided by 2MM is 123. In just 123 days or on the 169th day of the year or about June 18, 2021 everyone who wants a vaccine will have gotten one. Forgive me if I miss the exact date by a day or two. However, I think you would agree that my assumptions are reasonable and backed up by data.
By the way my data source for vaccine shots given, etc. is the Bloomberg Covid Data Tracker. You’ll need to provide your email address to get this information but it won’t cost you anything. I find all kinds of helpful state by state and national Covid vaccine results here.
Covid Data Tracker
Disclaimer alert! It’s difficult to predict tomorrow let alone five months from now. This all assumes we will not have a severe vaccine shortage. From what I am reading we will be awash in vaccine by April or so.
Herd Immunity.
We are being told that in order to achieve “herd immunity” that somewhere between 70-90% of our total population will need to be vaccinated. That’s not going to happen by July 4th. If 180 million (the adults who currently want the vaccine) do get vaccinated that’s only 55% of the total 330 million U.S. population. Without herd immunity we can’t really stop the spread of Covid through that means.
However, as more and more people continue to get vaccinated…55% of the population, with 95% effectiveness mostly, those folks won’t get Covid. Then when you factor in the people who have already tested positive for Covid and those people who have had Covid but didn’t get a test…and sadly the 500,000 people who died from Covid a very large percentage of the population will have immunity from either the vaccine or a past bout with Covid. Thinking about it that way maybe we WILL achieve herd immunity at that point.
Why do we fear Covid?
Why are people afraid of Covid in the first place? Why do people hunker down in their homes and avoid everyone else? The simple and direct answer is this. People don’t want to get sick and die. People don’t want to endanger their loved ones.
When folks hear the Covid death totals and listen to the bad news about Covid they get scared and stay scared. That’s a very normal reaction.
By the way I’ve been using the Covid “worldometer” website for Covid case counts, deaths and more, again on a state by state and country by country basis. I find it to be excellent.
Covid cases, deaths and much more country by country and state by state
However, as more and more people get vaccinated and more and more people recover from having tested positive for Covid the number of new cases and new deaths will decrease dramatically. That will be fantastic news.
However!
However….there always seems to be a “however”. Good news doesn’t attract eyeballs as much as bad news with the media whatever your choice of media. The media is laughing all the way to the bank with increased viewership from Covid’s “bad news”. What we will really need at this point are more scandals, more wars, more disasters and catastrophes! O.K., I’m kidding…mostly.
However the news of fewer Covid deaths and fewer new Covid cases will filter through. Schools will re-open or open up full-time. Restaurants will allow for indoor dining…and people will want to do that. Warm weather will come and people will spend more time outside. Sporting venues will begin allowing fans. People will want to hop on an airplane to visit their children and grandchildren and those folks will want to visit their parents and grandparents…when Covid cases and deaths fall rapidly. There will be dancing in the streets… metaphorically.
What could go wrong?
But…there are some things that can get in the way of my rosy predictions. I’ve already mentioned the potential for vaccine shortages. I don’t think that will happen but it could.
I think people are creatures of habit. I actually think a number of people have “gotten used to” their current Covid lifestyle. They’ve gotten used to not eating inside a restaurant, not going to the movies or a baseball game, not going on a cruise or flying on an airplane. I’ve already had a few friends tell me that even after they’ve been vaccinated they are going to be playing it very close to the vest. One thing is true. Everyone has a different tolerance toward the very same risk.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t plan to jump in a mosh pit. I just believe that if I get vaccinated, wear a mask wear appropriate, social distance and wash my hands the chances of getting Covid are dramatically reduced. How dramatically reduced?
Which vaccine?
I will say this. I would much prefer to get the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine at 95% effectiveness than the J&J vaccine at 72% effectiveness. I used a probability calculator to marry up the 95% vaccine effectiveness rate with a 99% chance of Covid survival if I did get Covid. The result gave me a rate of dying after being fully vaccinated from Covid at .005.
Then I checked a longevity calculator (yes, I have a lot of time on my hands). It told me that the average 75-year old had about a 3.5% chance of dying from ANYTHING in the next year. Based on those odds dying from Covid isn’t much riskier than walking across the street!
I also read that the country of Israel had vaccinated 750,000 of their residents. Just 38 people got Covid with mild to severe symptoms. That’s a .005 infection rate. Maybe the Israelis were using my probability calculator!
In mid-November I stopped my flying using this rationale. I figured I had been pretty lucky to travel for 24 straight weekends up to that point. With the vaccines on the near term horizon I thought I would just back off until I got vaccinated. After getting my first shot and researching the fact that the Moderna vaccine is 80% affective after only one shot whereas Pfizer was only 52% effective, even though they would both be 95% after two shots I decided it was safe for me to travel on airplanes once again. In early February I resumed my weekend flying. I suspect, if all goes well, I will have flown another 15-20 weeks by July 4.
What is the “one word” answer to Covid?
I have said from pretty much day one that the one-word answer to the Covid problem is…vaccine. There is also, in my opinion, one potential problem with the vaccines. If at some point the vaccines don’t work because of variants or any other reason then all of my positive feelings about the Covid future are off the table. If the vaccines work we are golden. If they don’t…I don’t wanna think about that.
My apologies.
I apologize for taking more than “my allotted time”. I guess that’s my reward for running this survey! From here on you will find Covid “today and July 4” experiences and guesstimates (facts and opinions) from some pretty smart and sincere folks.
Please do your best to read each one. We’ll come back around the Fourth of July and try to compare our predictions with reality. I am reminded it is impossible to predict the future…but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea to try.
Nevada
TODAY
Covid Experience
- Thanksgiving, 2020. Spent 4 days together in Brian Head, UT, rented house
- JiH – positive result, no symptoms, fast recovery
- JoH – positive result, common symptoms, 4-6 weeks of ensuing pneumonia
- T and boyfriend – positive results, 1 week sick, then recovery
- D (boyfriend mom). Positive results, sick for 2 weeks
- JH and girlfriend – negative result
- A (J sister) J (brother-in-law), positive result, sick for 2 weeks
- All of the above are recovered, no hospitalization
- Covid has been impactful.
- Many out of state meetings have been cancelled due to client sickness or city shut-down.
- Social life with bars, casinos, clubs drastically curtailed
- Travel, in general, has been significantly curtailed.
- Generally, COVID has been a big deal.
FUTURE
Unfortunately, I project that when July 4th rolls around, I believe the pandemic will still not be under control, Financially, I believe most people will be in worse shape than in 2020, and the country’s economy will be sputtering with out of control debt and unemployment.
Ohio
Covid today
No one I know personally has died of Covid. One person I know tested positive with
NO symptoms. 7 People WITH flu symptoms tested negative I followed the initial lockdown, but after mid-May and researching CDC numbers, I’ve eliminated fear. I wear a mask when required (grocery). I wash my hands so I don’t catch germs. I have not nor do I intend to receive a vaccine shot.
July 4th. Thing of the past. The truth will come out regarding 99% survival rate.
Most deaths were older, immune compromised adults.
Covid is real, but it’s a flu strain, politicized and used as a weapon.
My overall take away
I’ve learned more than ever about our government, politics, the Constitution(s),
my rights, all the media and pharmaceuticals. What a time in history!
No location shared.
As I mentioned in a previous email, I had Covid in June 2020 and was in the hospital with all symptoms. I received two covid plasma transfusions. Today (February 12, 2021), I still don’t have any smell or taste. My short-term memory is still very foggy. I work hard to try to restore it by doing many brain games.
My daily life is a challenge given the issues I still have. This is definitely not a virus to be messed with.
Things will be improved in the US, but I continue to hear from people who will NOT be getting vaccinated. My husband and I have appointments to be vaccinated on February 17. I see Covid will not go away, and we will have to get a vaccination each year as we do for the flu. I hope this has answered each of your poll questions. Keep safe.
Florida
Hi Randy,
On vaccines we were lucky, hit the Covid lottery as snowbirds in Florida and got our first dose 3 weeks ago at a Publix only 10 min from our Condo, 2nd dose scheduled for next week, same place. Never so happy to get a shot in my life. I wonder what happen to all the people that several months ago said they were not going to get a vaccine? 🤔, seems everybody wants one now!
We have missed several things we were really looking forward to, Europe vacations, family weddings, had tickets to the Masters, eating out at restaurants, etc. but we did continue seeing our immediate family, two daughters, son-in-law, and 2 grandkids, feeling everyone in our family bubble was being very careful. Actually our kids were more strict with their activities than they thought we were being 🤷♂️
So we have missed doing a lot of our favorite activities, but on balance are thankful we are still healthy and right now in sunny Florida, being outside, playing golf, etc.
We went from several months ago saying we didn’t personally know anyone that had COVID, or knew anybody that knew anybody. Now we know several people including one close friend that went from perfectly healthy to dead within 3 days of his first COVID system, very sad.
Being a glass half full type of person, I’m thinking (hoping) things will be much better by July 4, with more people being vaccinated, and we’ll continue to learn more about what activities and practices are of lower risk, and which ones to avoid still that are higher risk. We have a Europe trip planned for this September, but I’m guessing it might be 2022 before widespread international travel feels safe again?
On the electronic picture frame, I got one for Christmas 2019, love it! I even bring it with us the 3 months we are in Florida too. I have a file with our favorite grandkids photos, and a file for each of our travels over the few years, and rotate through them.
Arizona
Hi Randy,
Here’s how Covid has affected us.
Daily routine hasn’t changed a lot. We still get out although not as frequently as before Covid. We do avoid large crowds, hand wash and sanitize when we are out and we have used the N95 masks since the beginning. Since my background helps me understand how viruses work we stay cautious in our daily routine but if we need to go somewhere we do it and take the recommended precautions.
However, on the flip side–Covid had had some major impacts on us. We were planning to take 2 of our Granddaughters to Italy last summer. This trip got scrapped when Italy became a Covid hotspot and closed the country to travelers. Bummer!
Another impact was the death of a good friend of 50 years and a fellow hiker, hunter and fisherman who died 14 days after coming down with the virus.
My 98 year old mother who lives in a nursing home caught the virus and had nothing more than some congestion, a few aches and a bad cough. In two weeks she was back to normal. My youngest sister who is a doctor at a hospital in NE came down with Covid and only had minor symptoms like my Mom and recovered in a couple weeks. She did lose her sense of taste and smell which came back fully a month after she recuperated.
In March 2020 we bought a second home in AZ just before the nation decided that Covid was something to get serious about. In June after our Italy trip was cancelled we decided to make the AZ property our permanent home and move out of Cincinnati. We were able to safely complete all the interactions with realtors, movers, closing officers and everyone else required without any issues.
We have had our first vaccine jab this past week and are scheduled to get the second in early March.
Where are we going to be in July?
I think we will see a few more things open–restaurants, added attendance at sporting events and travel beginning to pick up.
Economically I think we will still be in the honeymoon period of stimulus. The stock market will remain stable and the jobs numbers will improve. I think we will see inflation starting to rise later in 2021. We are racking up a lot of debt and we will have to deal with that.
Politically I think we are in a great place. As long as both parties continue to agree to disagree they can’t screw up to many things. Unfortunately I can’t say I’m fond of either parties’ agenda of hate the other party when there are so many better ways they could be spending their time and our money.
Medically all I can say is “it depends”. This virus will continue to mutate ’cause that’s what they do. If it mutates to something benign then we are home free. If it goes the other direction we could be in deep dodo. That means we may have to find/approve a new vaccine if these old ones are no longer effective.
Stay Safe and keep the shiny side up!
Ohio
COVID-19 – Today
First I’m going to ask you what your current COVID-19 experience has been for you, your family and your friends.
The woman who cleans my house got COVID-19. I think she got it at a wedding fairly early in the COVID-19 era.
Have you gotten your vaccines?
First dose, 2nd one scheduled. Unlike many I had no problem getting an appointment. And all politics aside, I think anyone who doesn’t get a vaccine is a fool unless they have a medical reason not to. I have friend who has had Guillain Barre and she is afraid to get the vaccine.
you know people who are not going to get a vaccine? Not so far except for above.
In general, has COVID-19 been a big deal in your life? Or, has the impact of COVID-19 been barely noticeable as you go about your daily activities?
Barely noticeable due to being occupied by my very sick husband for the last 2 years. (not COVID-19) I go to the grocery store as rarely as possible and I don’t go anywhere else. I haven’t tried grocery pickup because of all the stories of orders not being really wrong, and because I only want a certain brand of strawberries (yes, “brand” of strawberries. Driscoll grows different varieties of berries than most of the companies do).
On July 4 I think things will be better, most businesses will be open, but people will still be getting sick and dying. I think the COVID vaccinations will become routine, like flu shots now. People may get boosters before they travel, particularly out of the country. I think schools will all be open in the fall.
I think far more people have gotten sick and died around the world than we will ever know – in India in particular. I saw news video from India when the first shut down was announced and people poured out of the cities like water – headed back to their home villages up to 2000 miles away. It looked like the videos from Saudi Arabia of the Hajj. You couldn’t have scripted a better super spreader event. COVID-19 will be endemic in India forever. Of course, it will be endemic everywhere forever.
United Kingdom
Good Morning Randy,
Covid in UK is on the decline , hopefully, as just over 15m have had at least their first vaccination all over 70s health and care workers who want a vaccination have had it and the next group to be done are the over 60s .
The only blip on the horizon is all the various mutations although our leading medics think that the jabs are effective against them , again hopefully.
We are still in basically a lockdown as you are not allowed to meet people outside your own household although you can go to the supermarket and mix with others 🤷.
All sports ,except elite ie professional, are still banned and those that do take place are in front of empty stands 😞.
Florida
Hi Randy
Hope all is well and you had a great Valentine’s Day! I did my usual grilling for dinner of a big juicy steak, and my wife had herself a lobster tail. I know I’m a day late on responding, but got busy and it slipped my mind.
To the task at hand:
We continue to remain pretty isolated without a ton of social engagement other than regularly visiting my in-laws. We go up once or twice a week to help out, provide them company and, because the vaccine appointments we were able to secure for them occur at night, we drove them there.
We have decided that since our community consists of 24 buildings with 4 condos each, and most everyone is careful and social distances, we have started to get together with our little pod of 4 condos – wine and cheese for a few hours a week. We sit outside in the lanai and continue to get to know each other.
We continue our 5 mile daily walks around the sub division although some days, it’s 90 degrees and it’s a challenge. We have now booked 3 additional cruises and hope one or more actually happen. If not, we’ll continue doing this as it’s great entertainment. 😊
We are also planning a road trip next month to go see our son in college in Virginia and then head back to Cincinnati to visit our oldest son and his wife. We will be seeing some friends as well in Cincinnati, although will be very small affairs. But…. in the end, I’ve concluded that we cannot continue with life on a full ‘hold’ and we just need to deal with the virus, protect ourselves best we can, and get back to the activity of simply living.
Regarding vaccines, we are waiting our turn patiently and will be actively trying to get appointments…my hope is that our turn is available sometime around Easter, and I have a bet with myself that by Labor Day everyone who wants a vaccine in the US will have it.
I hope next time you do an update, we are all well on our way to vaccination! In the meantime, stay safe and healthy.
Regards,
No location shared
Hi Randy, covid redponse:
Two families members of close friends died of covid, many friends contracted covid with mild symptons, on July 4 I suspect the US will be about the same, the variants will spread, we will see how long the vaccine really protects us, spouse and I had first vaccine, secind one end Feb, will take booster when that comes out too! Dont like not hugging kids and grandkids, they will have memories that we dont love them😢. Take care
Florida
Randy – sorry to be so late responding to your questions. Because I receive your newsletter at my secondary e-mail, I need to remember to go in and check my other e-mail account more regularly!
TODAY – I live in Florida and the vaccination process here has been a real mess. Our illustrious governor tried to suck up to all the old people in Florida so he included all people 65 and older in the initial phase of the vaccine. At first he did not limit it to only Florida residents and snowbirds, so people from all over the country were coming to Florida to get vaccinated. He has since changed the eligibility to be only people who are full-time or part-time residents of Florida, which has helped, but every county has its own process. He started a state-wide registration at the end of January, but our county (Sarasota) is not using it.
Because the only vaccination site in our county was 45 minutes away, we (ages 73 and 71) decided to wait until they started offering vaccinations closer to home before we registered with the county. Bad mistake – when we finally registered on the county website on January 31, we were number 109,499 in line. They are now scheduling only through 19,460 and are processing about 1000 people per day, At this rate it will be 3 months before they get to us!
The only good news is that now they are also offering the vaccine at some local pharmacies, completely separate from the county process. While it is extremely hard to get an appointment on-line, we are hoping enough people ahead of us on the list will get vaccinated at the pharmacies, so there will then be fewer people ahead of us up on the county registration list.
My 71-year-old sister-in-law in Miami has already received both doses of vaccine (her doctor is associated with a hospital and they actually contacted her), but our 92-year-old friend in Hollywood, FL is still waiting to be vaccinated. The system is definitely not fair!
Until we are vaccinated, we are going out on only essential errands (grocery store, haircuts, dentist, etc.), but as we live in Florida the weather is great and we do not feel cooped up. I am amazed when I drive through our downtown area to find so many people walking around without masks, etc. We are avoiding being around others as we do not want to risk getting Covid and potentially suffering from long term effects.
FUTURE – I think that by July 4 the vaccine will be available to anyone who wants it, and that schools will open normally next fall. We are not planning on taking any trips until at least August. Our 50th wedding anniversary will be August 21 and we are hoping to be able to take a trip for that!
Ohio
Hi Randy. To answer your survey questions…
1. Covid has not had a huge impact on us. We have all stayed safe and follow social distance other practices. Yes, we have experienced mild inconveniences, but compared to many others who have and are experiencing real suffering via job loss or serious illness or even death… we are incredibly fortunate/blessed. The biggest challenge has been in taking care of/protecting our parents, all close to 90 years old. Parents have had their first vaccines (and it seemed to take us forever to get them signed up)… and the next vaccine is scheduled in another week or two.
2. By the first part of July, I believe things will be much better. Many more businesses will open, more people will be going to eat in restaurants… and people will have more positive attitudes about life… vs living in fear. I actually rebooked a family vacation that we cancelled due to covid. In May, my wife, parents and my siblings and their spouses are all going to Orlando, staying in a 9 bed, 9 bath house… so we can create some great memories. Then in June (Lord willing), we are having a large 100 person party celebrating nearly 35 years of marriage. Bottom line, I am feeling very bullish about 2021!!! (and I’m not talking about the stock market).
Missouri
Hi Randy, first I want you to know how much I enjoy your newsletters, thank you!
My husband & I received our second COVID vaccines this week, I have had sore arm, so minor after affects from the vaccine. My husband has had fever, chills, & joint pain lasting a day. Early on I was determined to be vaccinated, even though not FDA approved, with an EUA only. I am a retired RN, and believe wide vaccination is the way to go.
I know other healthcare professionals who are not choosing to get vaccinated, & sadly advising those at risk not to. We are experiencing history, an urgent situation in which so many at risk are dying, while those who are spreading the virus are so uncaring that their behaviors are to blame. No one has a crystal ball to predict possible long term impacts of using these FDA unapproved vaccines, I support use now, I advise those to get vaccinated, & give resources for sign ups, etc.
If a third shot is developed & recommended due to COVID variants, I wii take it. I will continue to wear double face masks, gloves, hand sanitizers, and practice social distancing.
As far as July 4, I truly believe we will see an improvement and a reduction in COVID infections death rates. I want to plan a trip to the beach, maybe Gulf Shores or Destin, as our only granddaughter has never seen the ocean. I absolutely love the ocean!
Ohio
Hi Randy,
I wanted to share a bit of my covid experience so far.
I live in Ohio and just became eligible this week (along with 2.2 million other Ohioans) for the vaccine. The appointments are difficult to snag unless you’re willing to spend hours on the phone or in front of your computer. My plan is to wait a few weeks and hopefully the supply will increase and the appointments will be a little easier to get. I have an older sister who was eligible a couple weeks ago and she has already received her first shot. She has her second one scheduled. I have another sister who doesn’t plan to get the vaccine. She doesn’t trust it.
My son is a firefighter and he missed out on getting the vaccine the day they came to his firehouse because he was home with Covid. Luckily he had a pretty mild case and is back to work. His longest lasting side effect was that he lost his sense of taste and smell. Those both returned after about 6 weeks. Now it’s recommended that he wait for several month to get the vaccine.
My life currently isn’t too much different than pre-covid. I still see family and friends. I still go out to eat. I order my groceries online and then go pick them up. I do this more because I like the convenience than because I’m afraid to go into the store.
I miss attending live theater. I’m hoping to see that return maybe in the Fall? I also miss attending sporting events for my grandkids. They are now playing indoor soccer and indoor flag football. Only one spectator may attend. That is usually one of the parents.
I’m hopeful that things will be better by July 4th. However, I will probably be quarantined in my house during June and July. Not because of Covid but because of the dreaded 17 year cicadas coming this summer! Why couldn’t they have come last summer when everything was shut down and we had nowhere to go?!?!?
No location shared
Hi Randy,
Thanks for asking the questions and compiling the answers.
My wife and I received our second vaccination (Moderna) yesterday, benefitting from our status as hospital volunteers. My wife has had a much harder time with side-effects, particularly on the second dose. I skied ‘bell to bell’ (6+ hours) the day after the first shot. I would do the same today aside from the ski hill is mostly closed due to really cold temperatures (-25F without the wind chill at the summit!). What really amazes me is that there seems to be no visible benefit from taking the vaccine. I’ve asked travel service providers, who have told me point-blank that masks will still be required along with (in some cases) Covid tests(!) for those who can prove they have been vaccinated. And I’ve not heard of anyone in any area say that those who are fully vaccinated will be able at any time to reduce/eliminate other precautions. If this continues, there is a very real risk (IMHO) that mask wearing and social distancing will become widely perceived as something akin to pagan rituals. And, those ‘on the fence’ about getting vaccinated will see no material benefit to doing so – a bad thing for society. I have heard this exact rationale (answering another of your questions) from people who have said they will not get vaccinated.
On the effect of Covid on us = This ‘pandemic’ has taken a year of living life to the fullest away from us. That is a big deal given at our age we don’t know how many more of those living to the fullest years we have left. We had numerous trips cancelled out from under us. We haven’t visited out of state family (or been visited by them) for a year. Interestingly, our children seem to be more frightened of the virus than we are. We know a lot of people who have had Covid, with mostly binary results. Either they had mild symptoms (“the flu two years ago was much worse”) or they passed away. The second category without exception were people who were sadly at death’s door anyway. My guess is that the number of ‘excess deaths’ in 2020 will be reversed in 2021.
Looking forward to July 4: Our sincere hope is that most of this is behind us and that we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. My wife and I have booked a 35th anniversary trip for late-August / early-September in Ireland – including a castle stay on our 35th anniversary date. We’ve booked an around-the-world trip for April/May/June 2022. If this happens, the economy will take off again (some caveats here if onerous regulations are re-instated). Life will be good again.
Our fear is that there will always be ‘one more thing’, the next virus variant, etc. which will cause the politicians to take advantage of the ’something must be done’ fallacy. They’ve had their hands on ‘let no crisis go to waste’ power for a year and human nature being what it is will resist giving any of it up. Looking at this dispassionately, a lot of politicians are acting as if they have god-like powers – believing they alone are capable of stopping the force of nature represented in this case by a virus. But they are not gods, they don’t have that power. They only have the power to treat us like animals (denying us living life to the fullest with some risk in exchange for existing in isolation [caged] at home). On this path, the only question in my mind is if/when the economy collapses and/or there is a populist revolt. And I do hope I’m wrong.
Regards,
Florida
Randy-
Since we live in Florida where the weather is always warm, COVID has not been a huge deal in our lives. We modified our eating out to be outdoor dining. We moved Sunday worship to on-line. And of course we wear our mask in indoor public places like stores, doctors offices, etc. The big thing we miss is international travel. As soon as we get vaccinated, we’ll be on the hunt for some deals!
By July 4th I predict we’ll have about 50% of the US population vaccinated. Maybe 60%, but not quite at the herd immunity level.
Texas
Hey Randy.
No one in my immediate family has had COVID. Got my second Pfizer shot last week so I think I’m good to go. Know a handful of friends that have had the virus. Most were mild with no hospital time. One person died. By July 4 they’ll still be telling us to wear masks and social distance. Numbers will be better but not good enough.
One of my high school classmates, a renowned architect in Houston, has sent me videos of European scientists who claim the vaccines are going to greatly shorten the lives of the elderly and we are not hearing the real truth in America. He said , “ don’t take the vaccine. You’re healthy and in good shape. You don’t need it. The vaccine is not safe”. Well I told him, “ too late. Already got the shots”.
No location shared
Randy,
I hope this finds you and your loved ones healthy and well.
To address your questions:
1. First I’m going to ask you what your current Covid experience has been for you, your family and your friends. Have you gotten your vaccines? Are you going to get a vaccine? Are you or do you know people who are not going to get a vaccine? Have they told you why that’s the case?
In general, has Covid been a big deal in your life? Or, has the impact of Covid been barely noticeable as you go about your daily activities? Feel free to answer these questions and anything else that you feel might relate to Covid and your lifestyle today.
We are relatively lucky virus wise. My wife (59) and her father (89) contracted it, but had relatively minor symptoms, over within 3-4 days. All others in our circle have escaped catching it, or similarly had mild symptoms and cleared it. Parents have received vaccines, as have first responders in the family. My wife and I are not up until wave 1c, which is really wave three, but we don’t want to tell anyone they are in wave 7! OMG! Wave 4, after wave 1a,b,c sounds SOOOOO much better to us dumb people that are looked down on. We will get the vaccine when available to us. I do not know people who are hesitant or refusing to get the vaccine.
Covid has not ben a big impact, but the disproportionate and irrational government reaction to it has been. Closures, etc. are ridiculous. The incessant “training” to be submissive to our betters is ridiculous. Our government is way too intrusive in our lives, And there are way too many people in and out of government who think they have a “right” to tell others what they can and can not do. Nope.
- Secondly, I’m going to ask you where you think we’re going to be with Covid on July 4. That’s about five months from now. I know…the future is difficult to predict.
Are things going to be worse, about the same or much better? What do you think the outcome will or will not be from all of the things that are happening today with the United States Covid situation and the world for that matter. Generally, what is the world going to look like economically, medically and socially on July 4?
I expect our US will still be under a “crisis” situation, so the elites can keep trying to control us. I hope to be wrong and am working to make that so. The virus and current variants will be mostly under control, or well on the way to getting there. Sanity will start creeping in with realization that viruses mutate, and will be around – and guess what, like the flu, may need a new vaccine shot each year. But life goes on – for most, not all.
As to the world – not sure, but the same path, just at different points on the path.
Onward!
Illinois
Hi Randy,
Becky had the COVID test three times; all were negative.
Our daughter Sarah, and her husband Dan, both had COVID. They sufferred through it, said it was like a bad flu, recovered ok.
Some friends of ours also have had COVID, with similar experiences.
Ohio
Randy,
We got our first Covid-19 vaccination on February 1 and were eager to get it. We have relatives, on the other hand, who will not get the shot since they are against vaccinations. We find this rather odd since all of them grew up being vaccinated against diseases like polio…go figure! Covid-19 has been a big deal for us. We have had friends die from this virus and many close relatives were infected by it. Fortunately all our relatives have survived. We have been particularly concerned about my mother who just turned 99 and is living in assisted living. She got her second Covid-19 vaccination about a week ago so we hope she will now be much better protected. Over half of the residents in the nursing wing attached to her assisted living area died of Covid-19. We have only seen her once in the past year through a window in her room.
By July 4 we think things will be better. But we will probably still need to wear masks and do the other actions required to protect ourselves. We think vaccinations will still be in full swing. Many people in less developed countries will still be fighting the virus and trying to get the vaccines needed to combat it. We also think the pharmaceutical companies will be developing improved booster vaccines to fight the now mutating viruses. It may require annual shots to control this virus just like we do for the flu. We see a more hopeful but not totally satisfactory prospect for the near future.
Best regards,
Queensland, Australia
Hi Randy,
Covid — Today
I have been incredibly lucky, so far, with my Covid experience. As I live in a small country town called Pittsworth, in the State of Queensland, Australia, where our State capital, Brisbane, is the closest area where there has been only very spasmodic and relatively small clusters of the pandemic, I feel very fortunate indeed. Brisbane is about 175 kilometres from where I live and every time there has been a problem arise, the health authorities in the State have been very quick to isolate and quarantine where necessary.
Other States in Australia have had their own troubles from time to time, with Victoria the worst and New South Wales next. Victoria went through a tough time a few months ago with many cases and a substantial death tally, but now they seem to have gotten the situation under better control with clusters from time to time appearing. The various State borders are closed to infected States where necessary and this procedure seems to be working.
Overall, I have hardly noticed any difference in my life, with only the mandatory social distancing, hand-washing and sanitisiing being any different, along with the signing in and out of clubs and pubs so the health authorities can keep track of people should a problem occur.
The Federal Government has structured a National Rollout Strategy for the approved Covid-19 vaccines. Phase 1a will see quarantine and border workers, frontline health care worker sub-groups, and aged care and disability staff and residents get the vaccines first. Phase 1b will be next for elderly residents aged 70 and above, other health care workers, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people over 55, younger adults with an underlying medical condition, including those with a disability, and critical and high risk workers including defence, police, fire, emergency and meat processing workers. Phase 2a will follow for adults 50-69 years old, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 18-54 and other critical and high risk workers. Phase 2b will be for the balance of the adult population and to catch up any unvaccinated Australians from previous phases. Lastly, Phase 3 will be for those under 16 years of age if recommended.
It appears that the majority of people will receive the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, but the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will also be used. The latter is the only one to be used for Phase 3 recipients. The rollout is to commence late February.
I most certainly will be getting the vaccines at my earliest opportunity. I would like to see it made mandatory (which it won’t be) , unless there are underlying medical conditions which might compromise recipients’ health safety should they have the vaccines. I guess that applies to most of us. With that proviso, I hope that the overwhelming majority do the right thing and have the vaccines. Most people I talk to are going to get vaccinated.
Covid — Future
Like you say, the future is difficult to predict. In fact, pretty well impossible.
To answer this, I have to look at Australia’s relatively lucky situation geographically as well as the overall world situation, where country proximity is, in most cases, far more a problem than here. Australia, after all, is an island, and it has been pretty easy for authorities to close our borders and not allow too many people into the country from overseas. We have a lot of ex-pats in a lot of countries overseas who still can’t get back, as there are a very limited number of people allowed per month into each State and very few flights to accommodate their situation.
I really can’t see things improving much this calendar year. I just hope the vaccines have some effect but my great fear is that with these new mutant strains of the disease which keep popping up, are the vaccines going to be able to counteract them or is the world going to be always one step behind new mutations? An analogy would be the constant battle scientists have in trying to keep ahead of drug cheats in sport.
It scares me that the majority of the larger (population-wise) and developed countries of the world (eg. USA, Britain and many of the European countries) have such massive problems in trying to contain this wretched pandemic. Just when things appear to be improving, away it goes again. I feel for everybody who has it a lot worse than we have, and especially appreciate the hard-working health workers who put themselves at risk every day of the week in the fight. It must be so disheartening and frustrating for them.
As for what will it look like on July 4 economically, medically and socially. Really not much different from now is my guess. I hope I am wrong and not being “glass-half-empty” but I am not at all confident that the world will be much better the rest of this year and maybe beyond that. I know Australia has virtually written off any hope of people being able to go overseas this year, and as for things within our country, we can’t afford to be complacent because we know that the whole situation could blow up in our faces at any time.
Let’s hope that one or all of these vaccines end up being the “magic bullet” that we are all praying for.
Best Wishes,
Ohio
Hi Randy,
I hope all is well with you and your family. Answers to your questions of the day.
Today
We finally got the 1st Moderna vaccine for my 93 year old MIL yesterday. And while we were there, they had some extra so my wife and I were both
inoculated as well even though I fall outside the current “approved” list for the state of Ohio because I’m only 63. Luckily, we were in the right place at the right time.
I was on the fence regarding the vaccine but I didn’t have time to waiver. But I’m glad I got it. My wife and I both feel a big relief even though
we don’t think it’s going to change our activity much. We pretty much keep to our home, my MIL’s home, and the grocery. No other contact with
family or friends. Because of my MIL, Covid has tremendously affected our lives. We feel uncomfortably isolated. We hope that will get better
this summer when we can be outside with family and friends.
Future
I don’t expect things to be better (can they get worse?) by July 4. We still won’t be traveling although with the warmer weather we hope to be
able to congregate more with others outside as we did last summer. In fact, I am scientifically pessimistic about the long term future as well.
Viruses mutate, generally for the worse as far as humans are concerned. I think we have many years ahead of us that we will be fighting this.
No location shared
Randy,
Always a delight to get your email!
Doing OK so far in the Covid era. I try to reduce the viral load on my body by washing hands frequently, wearing a mask, and social distancing; all three concurrently when possible. I believe the body can take care of reduced viral loads by itself. Combine this with a modicum of exercise and a balanced but vegetable-heavy diet to keep fit.
Got the first dose of Moderna Jan 29th. No adverse effects.
I believe Covid will become a seasonal vaccine event based on all the talk of variants. Normal activities such as travel, school and work will start emerging in early 2022;Election year, you know!
All the best!
Ohio
Randy,
I’m in Ohio. Covid today has affected our lifestyle. We do a breakfast with Santa and an Easter Egg hunt for friends and neighbor families (~25 kids with their parents) and we have had to cancel them. We also have had to quarantine because we had a grandchild born last spring who has health issues, so if we want to see him, we need to limit what we do. I plan to get my vaccine as soon as I qualify ( 60+). My husband isn’t sure what he is going to do. Our son has gotten both doses (firefighter) and he said it was fine, just very sore arm.
Covid future: I think it will be around for a while with facemasks being worn, but hopefully less new cases. I think more vaccines will be available for many being vaccinated. By July 4th, I think outdoor gatherings will be allowed and people will be partying.
Looking forward to reading all the responses you get.
Wisconsin
From Wisconsin we have been playing the COVID game as close to CDC GUIDELINES as we can reasonably. Our daughter had COVID and has lingering affects in liver and lungs specifically. Have eaten in a restaurant once but it was off hours on an afternoon, otherwise only outdoor dining weather permitting.
One neighbor’s family was infected by his boss, the other neighbor considers any protective action one of “fear.” The domestic schism surrounds me!
Second vaccine shot occurs for us four days and we are pleased by our good fortune with that. But by July 4, I suspect cases will abate but COVID to become an annual issue like the flu due to virus variation, unless one causes a severe change.
No location shared
Randy,
Thanks, it will be interesting to read everyones take on these questions.
I was able to get my 91 year old parents their first vaccine and they are scheduled to get the second one soon. Some other relatives have also gotten theirs due to working in education or the medical field. Interestingly, the only ones that have had any negative reaction have all gotten the Moderna vaccine. Most had a reaction (fever) to the second injection, but a couple had a reaction to both doses. Fortunately, those only lasted a day or two.
I will get the vaccine and am eligible now, but have been unable to find a signup slot due to low supplies.
My best guess is that we will see COVID numbers continue to improve due to immunity, vaccination and safe practices. Warmer weather should help with the numbers, but I don’t see safe practice guidelines going away anytime soon…certainly not by July 4th.
New Hampshire
Randy,
I’ve cruised along pretty well during Covid, gone to work every day and raced from the middle of June on. We don’t do in person open mics, having them on Zoom, but that hasn’t really worked for me.
Got my second shot this past Monday, didn’t feel so good the next day but fine after that. Vikki hasn’t gotten her first one yet because she’s not 65, and her mother has the second shot scheduled for early March
I think July 4 will find us not unlike last July 4, doing outside activities with some limitations. I don’t see full on social gatherings across the board at that time, and for some it’ll be a long time before they feel safe coming out of the bunker.
Thanks,
Ohio
Randy,
I can’t recall if I’ve answered in the past or not. I think I did the last time you asked, but remembering that factoid wasn’t in my list of things to commit to my brain.
Re COVID today- I haven’t had a vaccine yet. In Ohio, I was only eligible to try and find somewhere with the vaccine this past Monday. Most places had booked for the week already. I’m hoping I can find somewhere next week. I haven’t talked to anyone who isn’t anxiously awaiting vaccine availability.
I’d say moderate deal. We are retired and don’t have kids to educate or work to worry about. We have a good sized home in a nice neighborhood and plenty of places to walk. I have walked at least 5 miles a day all but 12 days since this whole thing started last March. Current streak is at 133 days in a row of 5 miles. I do miss live performances. We frequented the symphony, ballet, and a variety of plays. Most of these are not occurring, and we are not planning to attend until vaccinated. We don’t eat out frequently. We are ordering carryout from local restaurants-probably more frequently than we would be going out sans COVID.
Re travel- we actually have done some. We’ve flown several times and feel pretty comfortable doing that, in fact we head to the US Virgin Islands in 2 weeks. Rather wish we were there right now. Cincinnati just added another couple of inches of snow to the 6 or so we already had, and the temperatures are dropping.
Interesting you should mention July 4. We have been contemplating that exact date and what things will be like. Mainly because our son and fiancé moved their wedding from last year on July 4th to this year, still on July 4th and we’re wondering how many of the out-of-towners will be willing to travel, and if our son and fiancé will be able to have their full original invite list.
Medically, I don’t think we’ll be as good as I’d like. I am concerned that too many people will not get vaccinated. As an engineer, I find it really hard to understand how logic/data don’t hold sway over whatever you want to call it (fantasy?)
Economically, I think we’ll be on the path to recovery, but no where near recovered. I’m concerned with how long it will take to get people fully employed and concerned with the number of people who have suffered severe economic issues. I’m cautiously optimistic that we have some governmental leadership, but pessimistic that the 2 parties won’t be willing to do what is needed (read work together) to recover economically. Socially- I think people will be getting together in somewhat larger groups then. I am concerned that the arts have taken a significant hit and social activities involving the arts will be a long way from pre-COVID days.
Net, I expect us to be on the road to a new normal, but pretty early on that journey yet.
California
Hi Randy,
Will be interesting to read everyone’s answers to your Covid questions.
Below are my answers.
1. Current experience.
98% of family and friends are following Covid protocol (mask wearing and social distancing etc).
No one in my immediate family has gotten the virus. I know many (about 20 people) outside my inner circle who have gotten it. 100% of those were not following protocol. Many of them are very religious (religious far right) and think that “god” will take care of them and they don’t like being told what to do.
Those thinkers all got it and still don’t follow protocol. One was a minister (from a church in San Diego) who never wore a mask and told his parishioners they didn’t have to wear them and didn’t have to social distance either.
This type of thinking totally ticks me off.
Personally, if we would have all come together earlier on when the virus broke, we would not have been where we are today. Way too many deaths. Love this country but, in a “once in a lifetime global tragedy”, we must all come together!
Doubt this will ever happen. Too large, diverse and a huge political split that I’ve never experienced before in my lifetime taking place in our country now.
2. I have not gotten my vaccine. I am “in the waiting room” on the Othena website.
3. Yes, I will get my vaccine but, I’m in no rush since I’m not going to Europe until June of 2022.😢
I follow protocol to the extreme and don’t think I’ll ever get it, but one never knows.
Part of me thinks I’ll be fine, if I never get a vaccine (since I’m very healthy) but, all my doctor and nurse friends have convinced me that getting the virus will have a worse affect on me than that of a vaccine. It’s like buying insurance. Get the vaccine just in case something bad does happen.
4. I only have 2 friends that won’t get the vaccine. One has horrible allergic reactions to them and the other one is an 80 year old neighbor that thinks it’s dangerous.
5. Covid tomorrow.
God only knows. A part of me says the worst is over with and another part thinks it would be pure hell if this comes back like it did in the beginning. Only time will tell.
Thanks for letting me express my feelings on this. As you can tell, I definitely need a vacation!!
Stay healthy and safe my friend.
Ohio
Greetings from OH. Thanks for allowing us to provide our input.
First, with regard to Covid-19, the effect has been to curtail our activities. We like the boat cruises on European Rivers and have taken them just about every year. Unfortunately, the trip on the Seine and springtime in Holland for April 2020 was cancelled. It was rescheduled for this year and guess what, cancelled again. We have not taken any domestic trips either. In the past year, we’ve only put on about 5,000 miles on our lease car. On the finance side, with the EIP and not spending $$, we’re doing great. I suspect this is true for almost all of our peers.
Predict the future??? But with a couple more vaccines ready for approval, plus faster rollout, my guess is that we are going to see a lot of pent up demand for travel, fine dining, etc. A lot of the habits we’ve developed during the pandemic will be carried over, and life will be healthier.
Thanks for what you do.
Nevada
Hi Randy!
A couple of my thoughts on covid…a few of my friends have received the vaccine. Most did not have any side effects after the first shot. Many did have side effects from the second shot. Side effects varied from just a sore arm to feeling very very sick ( headache, lethargic, no appetite, body aches etc). Interesting that the friend, 62 year old man who had covid in November, was the one that had the worst reaction to the second shot.
Has covid impacted our lives? Absolutely. What areas of our lives are still impacted: husband still working from home, dining out restrictions, travel restrictions, seeing family and friends, volunteer work impacted, health care/hospital visitation etc.
Will we get the vaccine? Yes, we will and most of our friends plan to get the vaccine.
What do I think life will look like July 4th? I think we will still be working thru Covid. I think we will still be wearing masks. But on the bright side, I think most Americans who want the vaccine will have access to it. Hopefully life will be more “normal” than it is today.
I do believe and have already begun to see the financial impact of Covid in the Las Vegas area. The entertainers have been out of work for almost a year, casinos are still not open at 100% capacity or 24/7, so many restaurants have already closed and many more will, smaller mom and pop type businesses have not survived. All of the above will impact people’s lives for many years to come; whether it be financially, change of careers, losing their homes, bankruptcy etc.
2020 will be a year we will never forget.
Stay well! – Las Vegas
Texas
Hi Randy,
I’ve received one Pfizer vaccination, and get the second in a couple of weeks. The only person who has told me to my face that he wasn’t getting the vaccine yet was my internist, weirdly. When I asked what his thoughts were, he said that he wanted “more data” before getting the vaccine. In his defense, this was mid-October, so perhaps his thinking has changed by now. Still, it gave me pause, and I wondered to myself if I should find a new doctor.
You may recall that my first job after college was as a teacher and coach, at Seagoville High School, near Dallas. On social media recently, I’ve seen comments from some of those former students saying that they will not get the vaccine because they “don’t trust it.” Very few (if any) of those folks have college degrees; that community is blue collar at best, and some probably live near the poverty line. Additionally, I saw one woman I know from my high school comment that she’s not getting the vaccine; she doesn’t have a college degree, and she believes in all sorts of nutty conspiracy theories.
We relaxed and dined inside a few months ago, and soon after my wife tested positive for the virus, although thankfully she never had any symptoms. We have not dined indoors at a restaurant since, but we have met another couple to dine outdoors at a restaurant. Occasionally, when the weather is nice, my wife or I has had a friend over to sit in the backyard, socially distanced, and visit. We socialize much less when compared to the before times. Primarily we get our groceries delivered, or pick them up, but occasionally we do go in a store briefly, always masked. I walk every day for exercise in our neighborhood, and I’m never masked for that.
I haven’t hugged my grandkids or kids in quite a few months now, and probably won’t, at least until I’m completely vaccinated, and maybe not even then, depending on their thoughts.
I’ll fly to Vegas in mid-March for our annual March Madness visit, along with at least a buddy or two. It won’t be the same because of restrictions in Vegas, but it will be better than nothing. I’ll do some birding while there and of course won’t wear a mask for that.
On July 4 things won’t be drastically different. More people will be fully vaccinated of course, but we won’t yet be far enough along to achieve herd immunity. Cases and deaths from covid will have tapered off, but will still be occurring. The economy will still struggle some, but will be making some progress.
Hope this helps.
Safe travels,
Pennsylvania
Hi Randy.
First I do not personally know anyone who has contracted COVID-19. Second we have received our first injection of the vaccine last week and are already scheduled to receive our second dose on March 2. All of my friends and family intend to get the vaccine as soon as they are able. We do not know anyone who is anti vaccine.
COVID has disrupted my life in that I cannot and will not attend events indoors or outdoors. That means not going to the movies, attending concerts, visiting museums, attending baseball games and eating in restaurants. We were able to travel to Vermont last year and stay in a cabin we rent for six weeks. However, unlike previous years no one was able to visit. We celebrated the holidays alone.
The good news is I have a gym set up in the basement and I walk four to five miles each day and avoid being any closer than six to ten feet from anyone. Yes I wear a mask at all times when outdoors and two masks when I food shop.
Answering your question about COVID future is harder because there are four known variations of the virus. The British variant, the Brazilian variant, the South African variant and the California variant. We still don’t have sufficient data on how effective the current vaccine is against these variants. I suspect we’ll still be using a mask through summer and most likely until the CDC says the US has achieved herd immunity.
International travel for me would take the WHO to declare the world has achieved herd immunity.
Best regards,
No location shared
I’m one of those that enjoys reading your letters, but don’t respond. So here is my first:
- I had Covid in September. It was mild and I recovered after about 3 weeks.
- My wife had symptoms for about 3 days, but never tested positive for Covid.
- I will get the vaccine when available to my age group (63). Same for my wife (61).
- I think July will be much better as the vaccine rolls out and more people get it.
- I know of several people that will not get the vaccine shot. This seems to be mainly due to their belief that it is not fully researched.
- I am mostly concerned with the economy this year. The USA has borrowed way too much money and keeps spending like that is ok. I also worry about the impact of Covid on young people that have now learned that it’s more lucrative to live on unemployment than to work for a living.
Cheers,
Ohio
Ah COVID – Yes I have gotten the vaccine – I was surprised at my reaction of relief and gratitude when I received it. I am now in my waiting period for the second dose. My husband will receive his first dose later today. My lifestyle has changed significantly with COVID – no in restaurant dining – carry out only, fewer trips to visit grandkids, and my work has gone virtual. I am a Psychotherapist and see all of my clients via Zoom. My client load has also increased substantially due to COVID stress.
Where do I think we’ll be on July 4th – I think things will be the same and different. Many more people will be vaccinated and masks will be a matter of course – just something we all do. We will learn to live with COVID rather than be free of it.
Florida
Hi Randy,
I enjoy your newsletters and commentary! Here’s my input.
GREETINGS FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA
Everyone I know has gotten at least their first and, more than likely, their second covid vaccine already. What this also says is that everyone I know is over 65. Vaccines continue to be given out at hospitals, county sites, VA facilities (veterans over 65) and supermarket chains such as Publix. As of yesterday, Feb 10, Walmart and Winn-Dixie are giving out vaccines. The sign up process for any of these locations is very straightforward but it’s online. You can sign up people who do not have computer access but are over 65. I don’t know anyone who is not getting the shot. Florida has not been closed down like other states so our economic recovery is on track.
I still only know three people in my general area (not all in the county where I live) who ever had covid and that was around March 2020. One of the people was on the cruise ship to South American that ended up being docked in CA for several weeks. I don’t know how the other two people got covid but that was also around Spring 2020. All three people are long since recovered.
Millions more people will be vaccinated by July 4th. The US will continue to be a severely politically divided country and that will continue to get worse as time goes on. Inflation is already happening. Gas prices here have gone up 40 cents a gallon since January, that being from around $2 a gallon to $2.43 today. Food prices are steadily increasing, and coupons or other discounts are decreasing. I plan to maintain my stockpile of groceries and paper.
Washington
Randy:
Hope Carol and you are safe and well, ok, I see FB posts to know things look favorable.
As you know, Barb and I both had our initial Covid-19 vaccine administered at the end of last month. Barb had Pfizer and me Moderna, respectively. Second shot scheduled for the last two Saturdays of this month. I don’t know anyone that is not getting vaccine.
Our travel schedule for salmon fishing annually to BC negatively impacted and had to cancel last year’s river cruise on the Rhine, too. I do think things will open up slowly for us and businesses but still not sure about these two trips this year. I’m leaning to reschedule the cruise unless I hear Viking has some very good Covid protocols in place to make the trip fun with mask considerations.
We did see our son, Jason, recently after about a year. Our oldest, Todd, turned 45 yesterday and living in the Minneapolis area.
Take care, boss.
Indiana
Randy,
In Indiana they have extended the vaccine target group to include my wife and I but we have not gotten it yet. With the shortage I believe they need to get most of the first groups done before extending it. We will at sometime in the future get the vaccine. I know there are some people who feel that they are counting deaths to Covid, but I feel that there are others that Covid indirectly caused the death. I retired 11/19 and had planned on doing some extended travel in the spring. That has not happened and not sure when it will.
I don’t believe that we are going to be in much better shape come July but I hope I’m wrong. With these variations of the virus showing up I wander if this is not going to end up like the flu vaccine. With them guessing at what vaccine to administer in a country.
Hope I’m wrong and all works out.
California
Good morning!
Had my first vaccine shot Friday, 2/5. Second vaccine shot scheduled on 2/26. OC Supersite at Soka University provides the Pfizer vaccine. (A side note, some of the ladies I swim with said they’ll go with Pfizer. When asked why? Pfizer makes Viagra and if they can bring something back from the dead, surely they can do a better job of keeping us alive!)
Covid is circling the wagons around me. Several friends have tested positive including my sister-in-law, niece, nephew and now my CA son and his family.
I have taken the Covid pre test over the last three weeks with positive results as all of the tests were negative! Making negative the new positive!
Thank goodness everyone in my family had mild symptoms and all have recovered.
This July 4th we’ll still proceed with extreme caution as we’ll still be concerned about the Covid virus. However, some of our traditions and activities will return on a smaller and smarter scale. Consumer confidence will start to increase, gradually but our outlook will improve.
We’re on our way to our new normal. Time will tell whatever that will be.
By then, I’m going to Disneyland baby.
Ohio
Hi Randy,
1. I sent a photo of a rose I grew to your hi-tech picture frame. I hope you received it.
2. COVID-current
We are still being very cautious. We go to the store and run other errands, but we try to avoid other situations when we can. We have postponed dentist and doctor visits to limit our contact with people who might have been exposed to COVID.
3. COVID – July 4
We have received one vaccination shot so far, and the other one is scheduled in less than 2 weeks. After about the middle of March, we will feel free to do more than we do now. We have grandchildren who are in their late teens and early twenties that we haven’t seen for quite a while. They have too much exposure to the general public. We will be happy to start seeing them again on a regular basis. We would like to take a vacation trip in May or June, but it will probably be by car. We don’t yet feel safe to fly, unless they start requiring vaccinations to board a plane, which isn’t likely. Maybe the airlines should schedule some of their flights as “vaccination required”.
We are more concerned about what is going to happen next fall and winter, especially if other, stronger variants emerge. We have a three week vacation planned for next January that we really want to take.
Arizona
Hi Randy. My husband and I retired, sold our house and live full-time in a large motorhome. Normally we spend the winters in Arizona and travel around the country sightseeing the rest of the year. It’s a great life but because of the virus we’ve temporarily stopped visiting tourist places unless it’s outdoors. We currently are staying in a great RV park but don’t participate much in activities but we do get together with a few couples outside and we’re spaced apart. We can’t complain because we still have plenty of money and aren’t worried about housing or food or paying our bills but we miss sightseeing so much. Hopefully later this year life will get back to normal. We both will get the vaccine as soon as we qualify but we’re under 65 so it may take awhile. We do have one friend who won’t wear a mask unless it’s mandatory where she is going and have two other friends who think this is a hoax. I don’t understand it but we also live across the country from each other so don’t have to worry about socializing with each other. On July 4th I hope that everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to get it.
Ohio
Hey Randy!
Wifey and I have had our first MRNA shot. Look forward to the second in a few weeks. Drive through basis nearby so very little waiting and very little risk. No reaction to the shot. Outlook for the future is good. Lockdown has not bothered me much at all (I stay busy at home) but my wife would love to get out more and soon will be able to.
No location shared
Covid has not been a big deal. No incidents in my family, including 15 grandkids in school.
Not planning on getting vaccinated. Too many unknowns. Not saying “never”, just willing to wait. Living my life fairly normally, albeit wearing mask when required.
I’m interested in seeing how many aren’t. The only voices on geezers are those clamoring for an appointment.
I don’t share my thought as I believe I would get lectured. So, hopefully you are a safe ground.
Ohio
Thanks for the opportunity to share…or more precisely…vent.
Covid – Today
As to the disease itself, essentially zero impact to me or my immediate family. None of us has it. One of my nephews had it, but no symptoms. A couple of work colleagues and their families have had it. But again, nothing serious.
As to the impact of the disease on daily life. Nothing short of huge.
- Work from home is draining. I’m seriously considering early retirement (I’m 61 as was going to retire at 62…so early is “relative”).
- I miss interacting with colleagues. I work in R&D, and today’s planned, overt virtual meetings just don’t cut it. I don’t think management fully understands the impact of “hallway conversations”, and how they spurred innovation. And I don’t imagine we’ll ever get back to work as it was. Many, in particular the younger crowd, are used to work from home. (Many did this prior to Covid, usually on Fridays. And for whatever reason, they were never reachable on those “work from home” days)
- I wear a mask everywhere I go. But I’m not sure if the mandates are really doing any good and are in fact just “virtue signaling”. A couple of observations…
- Many of the folk I see when I’m out and about wear their masks below their nose. Not sure what good that does.
- Many of the folk I see wear cloth masks. I imagine the pore size in those fabrics don’t have a whole lot of efficacy in stopping Covid, either coming in or going out.
- I know there are particle size differences between Covid, and other stuff out there. Still, if I can smell people who smoke, or perfumes, or gasoline, etc., etc. how much good do masks really do? In the vein of “follow the science”, I’ve read that masks are more effective in preventing the spread from folk who have it than they are in preventing folk from getting it. But, just like a restaurant can say “no shirt, no shoes, no service”, stores can say “wear the mask or no service”. I’ve no problem with that. For me, that’s much preferable to Uncle Sam mandating it. (I’m libertarian at heart, and believe people have the right to take informed risks…even stupid ones)
- Luckily my kids are well past school age, and my grandkids are not yet in school. But kids currently of school age? They’re screwed. They’ll never make this up. And they’ll never get back those once in a lifetime events…sports, graduations, etc. I think the politicians and teachers unions who’ve mandated “no school” will/should regret this in the future. I’ve heard from work colleagues with school age kids, just how useless remote classes are. Very little accountability and even less learning.
- My wife and I will get the vaccine as soon as we’re eligible. This doesn’t mean we’re fully comfortable with it. Who knows what if any side effects might pop up in the future. We do get the regular flu shot every year, and I always seem get sick from it. Yea…I hear the Dr’s say that’s not possible. But empirical evidence says otherwise. Still, I’d rather get sick from those shots than get the actual flu. I used to get the flu just about every year before I started getting the annual shot. Big fun…not.
Covid – Future
I truly believe that come July 4, we’ll be pretty much back to normal. More and more folk will be getting the vaccine. Besides, States who seem more “laissez-faire” in their approach to Covid don’t seem to be doing any worse than the dictatorial ones. The cynical part of me thinks that some of “shut-it-all-down” sentiment came from politicians who wanted to exacerbate the pain prior to the last election. With those results having turned out as they did, I think…cynically…that there will be a strong desire to get things up and running again quickly.
Well…there’re my 2 cents.
No location shared
Have you gotten your vaccines?
Got First dose this week. Need to wait 4 weeks for 2nd.
Are you or do you know people who are not going to get a vaccine?
No. At least no one who has admitted it.
Have they told you why that’s the case?
In general, has Covid been a big deal in your life? Or, has the impact of Covid been barely noticeable as you go about your daily activities?
Big deal. Staying holed up in house quite a bit. Rarely eating out, and cut down on visits to breweries. Stopped family vacations. Cut back on celebrations and gatherings with friends. Can’t wait for this mess to be over!
July 4th Status? I expect (and hope) things will be much better by July. But, I expect international travel will still be limited. The watch out if new variants emerge for which the current vaccines don’t provide protection.